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Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed? – Emerald Coast Real Estate

Interest Rates

Buyer’s Purchasing Power?

A common question that our agents face every day is, are mortgage rates going up?  It is an important question to ask, as the higher the mortgage rate the lower the loan amount you can afford.  Panama City Beach and along the Emerald Coast is still a scorching housing market, and prices continue to rise.  As mortgage rates start to creep up along with rising home prices, the less purchase power a home buyer will have.  What does that mean?  If you are waiting for the time to be suitable to purchase…that time is now!

If you are thinking about buying or selling, it is essential to understand the current real estate market.  A trusted, experienced real estate agent is invaluable in helping you know Panama City Beach and the Emerald Coast real estate market.

  Life’s A Beach Real Estate can help you stay up on the current industry topics and trends.  And help with questions, concerns, and much much more.

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading

Mortgage rates have increased significantly since the beginning of the year. Each Thursday, Freddie Mac releases its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. According to the latest survey, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen from 3.22% at the start of the year to 3.55% as of last week. This is important to note because any increase in mortgage rates changes what a purchaser can afford. To give you an idea of how rising mortgage rates impact your purchasing power, see the table below:

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading | MyKCM

How Can You Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Headed?

While it’s always difficult to know exactly where mortgage rates will go, a great indicator of where they may head is by looking at the 50-year history of the 10-year treasury yield, and then following its path. Understanding the mechanics of the treasury yield isn’t as important as knowing that there’s a correlation between how it moves and how mortgage rates follow. Here’s a graph showing that relationship over the last 50 years:

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading | MyKCM

This correlation has continued into the new year. The treasury yield has started to climb, and that’s driven rates up. As of last Thursday, the treasury yield was 1.81%. That’s 1.74% below the mortgage rate reported the same day (3.55%) and is very close to the average spread we see between the two numbers (average spread is 1.7).

Where Will the Treasury Yield Head in the Future?

With this information in mind, a 10-year treasury-yield forecast would be a good indicator of where mortgage rates may be headed. The Wall Street Journal just surveyed a panel of over 75 academic, business, and financial economists asking them to forecast the treasury yield over the next few years. The consensus was that experts project the treasury yield will climb to 2.84% by the end of 2024. Based on the 50-year history of following this yield, that would likely put mortgage rates at about 4.5% in three years.

While the correlation between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year treasury yield is clear in the data shown above for the past 50 years, it shouldn’t be used as an exact indicator. They’re both hard to forecast, especially in this unprecedented economic time driven by a global pandemic. Yet understanding the relationship can help you get an idea of where rates may be going. It appears, based on the information we have now, that mortgage rates will continue to rise over the next few years. If that’s the case, your best bet may be to purchase a home sooner rather than later, if you’re able.

Bottom Line

Forecasting mortgage rates is very difficult. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, once said:

“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

However, if you’re either a first-time homebuyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your changing needs, understanding what’s happening with the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates can help you make an informed decision on the timing of your purchase.

To learn more, reach out to our team.  With multiple office locations, Life’s A Beach Real Estate office is located in the Grand Panama Beach Resort and Origin At Seahaven.  And Life’s A Beach Luxury Real Estate is located in Destin.  We are here to answer your questions and help you find your piece of paradise.

 

 

 

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Pets & Home Buying – Emerald Coast Real Estate

Pets & Homebuying

A Happy Tail!

  If you have a pet, I am sure you are considering your pet & homebuying and what to expect.  Our pets are a big part of our life!  Many of us plan our lives around our pets.  Therefore, their role in the home buying process is essential!

If you are thinking about buying or selling, it is essential to understand the current real estate market.  A trusted, experienced real estate agent is invaluable in helping you know Panama City Beach and the Emerald Coast real estate market.

  Life’s A Beach Real Estate can help you stay up on the current industry topics and trends.  And help with questions, concerns, and much much more.

Pets & Home Buying – A Happy Tail

A Happy Tail: Pets and the Homebuying Process [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

  • It’s no secret that we love our furry friends – about 70% of U.S. households have pets. What may come as a surprise is how large a role they play in the homebuying process.
  • Americans spend $1,163 a year on their pets, and nearly half of pet owners say they would move for better accommodations and amenities for their pets.
  • If you’re thinking of adding a furry friend, or if you already have, let’s connect to discuss how you can find a home that meets all your pet’s needs.  And what you can expect with pets & home buying.

To learn more, reach out to our team.  With two office locations, Life’s A Beach Real Estate is located in Panama City Beach.  And Life’s A Beach Luxury Real Estate is located in Destin.  We are here to answer your questions and help you find your piece of paradise.